NORMAL

Sergoula Sea Temperature Dashboard

CURRENT SITUATION: 2026-05-02

SYSTEM ALERT: POTENTIAL BLACK SWAN EVENT
Risk Horizon: 2026-07-14 to 2026-09-20 Peak Risk Date: 2026-08-18 Max Probability: 18.7%
72-Hour Tactical Readiness
Date Temp (°C) +/- Err BSE Risk
2026-05-02 18.61 0.67 0.00
2026-05-03 18.83 0.57 0.00
2026-05-04 18.78 0.68 0.00
Executive Interpretation
The model estimates a baseline mean temperature of 20.44°C with a seasonal amplitude of ±6.59°C. Significant tail-risk detected: The probability of breaching the 28.0°C threshold peaks at 18.7%. Operational caution is advised during risk windows.
Seasonal Transition Windows (1-sigma CI)
Threshold Expected Date 1-sigma Credible Interval
20°C UP 14 May 14 May - 15 May
20°C DOWN 21 Nov 20 Nov - 21 Nov
24°C UP 20 Jun 20 Jun - 21 Jun
24°C DOWN 15 Oct 14 Oct - 15 Oct
Annual Extremes (1-sigma Window)
Extreme Metric Mean Temp Likely Date 1-sigma Prob. Window
Annual Maximum 27.03°C 17 August 17 Aug - 18 Aug
Annual Minimum 13.85°C 16 February 15 Feb - 16 Feb
MCMC Stability
Param R-Hat Status
Amplitude 1.0004 PASS
Phase 1.0001 PASS
Offset 1.0017 PASS
Sigma 1.0010 PASS
Nu 1.0363 PASS
Thermal Trajectory Forecast
Posterior Parameter Estimates (MCMC Uncertainty)
Parameter Mean Std Dev 95% CI Lower 95% CI Upper
Amplitude 6.5872 0.0465 6.4968 6.6780
Phase -2.3675 0.0075 -2.3820 -2.3527
Offset 20.4392 0.0329 20.3759 20.5031
Sigma 0.9197 0.0230 0.8748 0.9663
Nu 18.4582 1.4326 14.4021 19.9602
Extended Risk Schedule
Date Expected_Temp Lower_50_CI Upper_50_CI Lower_95_CI Upper_95_CI Black_Swan_Prob
2026-07-14 25.957324 25.306028 26.561764 24.114896 27.980243 0.024444
2026-07-15 25.963483 25.252072 26.615915 23.863903 27.900126 0.022222
2026-07-17 26.188738 25.506794 26.844445 24.342657 28.235933 0.035556
2026-07-18 26.140260 25.465293 26.795215 24.195740 28.148761 0.040000
2026-07-19 26.241431 25.541147 26.893924 24.371402 28.103161 0.031111
2026-07-20 26.279036 25.590901 26.957683 24.252297 28.166344 0.037778
2026-07-21 26.367506 25.754872 26.979411 24.225594 28.286470 0.044444
2026-07-22 26.358578 25.721455 27.075523 24.349439 28.139398 0.037778
2026-07-23 26.403846 25.727798 27.040537 24.517810 28.306308 0.060000
2026-07-24 26.545919 25.955612 27.102404 24.672955 28.643935 0.064444
2026-07-25 26.449113 25.800855 27.045718 24.634266 28.427949 0.060000
2026-07-26 26.592770 25.881906 27.302887 24.708619 28.635641 0.091111
2026-07-27 26.541870 25.797325 27.242542 24.771390 28.430958 0.060000
2026-07-28 26.642836 26.064928 27.191826 24.870704 28.630552 0.080000
2026-07-29 26.718570 26.153317 27.406454 24.808324 28.625861 0.073333
2026-07-30 26.673704 26.067874 27.322262 24.810593 28.574161 0.097778
2026-07-31 26.750718 26.099524 27.443759 24.746257 28.562115 0.082222
2026-08-01 26.838874 26.225898 27.418403 25.014882 28.712377 0.117778
2026-08-02 26.772171 26.130349 27.475599 24.720998 28.685114 0.108889
2026-08-03 26.787829 26.144975 27.349368 24.811929 28.958986 0.106667
2026-08-04 26.866819 26.190356 27.536440 24.817294 28.788790 0.122222
2026-08-05 26.913427 26.335916 27.507757 24.788112 28.787421 0.104444
2026-08-06 26.974609 26.411181 27.605933 24.706686 28.906011 0.135556
2026-08-07 26.946878 26.277669 27.611955 25.182444 28.739961 0.140000
2026-08-08 26.857935 26.246512 27.510006 24.834386 28.769078 0.120000
2026-08-09 26.992244 26.386172 27.604152 25.073894 28.847756 0.135556
2026-08-10 27.021291 26.377574 27.639457 25.347456 28.941595 0.142222
2026-08-11 26.988154 26.350843 27.647851 25.057430 28.686562 0.131111
2026-08-12 26.984053 26.356746 27.647930 25.143602 28.798308 0.131111
2026-08-13 26.971079 26.325545 27.623936 25.108161 28.968223 0.140000
2026-08-14 27.083854 26.421424 27.752557 25.357890 28.951166 0.153333
2026-08-15 27.052051 26.354336 27.723234 24.993052 28.943208 0.164444
2026-08-16 27.060406 26.452163 27.713440 25.193230 28.866047 0.155556
2026-08-17 27.034262 26.431667 27.694674 25.131278 28.947087 0.151111
2026-08-18 27.089118 26.465115 27.753719 25.110154 28.934978 0.186667
2026-08-19 26.987562 26.392280 27.605045 25.006384 28.792819 0.140000
2026-08-20 27.017175 26.344389 27.743258 25.074386 28.865629 0.168889
2026-08-21 27.033358 26.443636 27.616012 25.130547 29.143414 0.135556
2026-08-22 27.054481 26.437884 27.631815 25.242703 28.918496 0.175556
2026-08-23 27.019146 26.387966 27.689109 25.080922 28.903545 0.166667
2026-08-24 26.977211 26.401228 27.608660 25.198645 28.865829 0.137778
2026-08-25 26.945140 26.331984 27.606912 25.023000 28.907854 0.126667
2026-08-26 27.014791 26.315815 27.577790 25.232760 29.292511 0.146667
2026-08-27 27.029087 26.317323 27.664199 25.018076 28.959029 0.166667
2026-08-28 26.851734 26.257612 27.458876 24.965719 28.635603 0.102222
2026-08-29 26.895741 26.249489 27.524472 24.969845 28.849722 0.120000
2026-08-30 26.901697 26.213840 27.579573 24.893838 28.941378 0.144444
2026-08-31 26.848771 26.231500 27.494394 24.802726 28.895924 0.120000
2026-09-01 26.823581 26.206845 27.488536 25.028214 28.673357 0.095556
2026-09-02 26.865532 26.210001 27.494989 24.924452 28.851792 0.113333
2026-09-03 26.769389 26.153410 27.432210 24.561099 28.716572 0.113333
2026-09-04 26.791148 26.161160 27.424244 24.976542 28.547280 0.093333
2026-09-05 26.718468 26.174876 27.345670 24.997078 28.542064 0.068889
2026-09-06 26.650331 25.993782 27.236778 24.886243 28.793967 0.077778
2026-09-07 26.621662 25.947724 27.279755 24.644963 28.634114 0.082222
2026-09-08 26.592789 25.949305 27.217148 24.567299 28.723407 0.080000
2026-09-09 26.586876 26.001957 27.191276 24.628508 28.463004 0.068889
2026-09-10 26.464164 25.836563 27.065505 24.511886 28.478691 0.051111
2026-09-11 26.316917 25.700009 26.900398 24.415913 27.993881 0.026667
2026-09-12 26.340440 25.663907 27.015655 24.022790 28.349848 0.048889
2026-09-13 26.321749 25.612600 26.960457 24.518701 28.333696 0.053333
2026-09-14 26.326933 25.703624 26.918707 24.556035 28.280408 0.048889
2026-09-15 26.173695 25.552269 26.784208 24.330578 28.083481 0.031111
2026-09-16 26.210316 25.526232 26.830686 24.515419 28.201209 0.048889
2026-09-20 25.967183 25.278885 26.619921 24.031444 28.189368 0.035556
Operational Readiness Schedule
Status Date Black_Swan_Prob Recommendation
🔵 MONITOR 2026-07-14 2.4% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-07-15 2.2% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-07-17 3.6% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-07-18 4.0% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-07-19 3.1% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-07-20 3.8% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-07-21 4.4% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-07-22 3.8% Tail-risk detected
🟡 CAUTION 2026-07-23 6.0% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-07-24 6.4% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-07-25 6.0% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-07-26 9.1% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-07-27 6.0% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-07-28 8.0% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-07-29 7.3% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-07-30 9.8% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-07-31 8.2% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-01 11.8% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-02 10.9% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-03 10.7% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-04 12.2% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-05 10.4% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-06 13.6% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-07 14.0% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-08 12.0% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-09 13.6% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-10 14.2% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-11 13.1% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-12 13.1% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-13 14.0% Prepare contingency plans
🔴 ALARM 2026-08-14 15.3% Immediate Action Required
🔴 ALARM 2026-08-15 16.4% Immediate Action Required
🔴 ALARM 2026-08-16 15.6% Immediate Action Required
🔴 ALARM 2026-08-17 15.1% Immediate Action Required
🔴 ALARM 2026-08-18 18.7% Immediate Action Required
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-19 14.0% Prepare contingency plans
🔴 ALARM 2026-08-20 16.9% Immediate Action Required
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-21 13.6% Prepare contingency plans
🔴 ALARM 2026-08-22 17.6% Immediate Action Required
🔴 ALARM 2026-08-23 16.7% Immediate Action Required
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-24 13.8% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-25 12.7% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-26 14.7% Prepare contingency plans
🔴 ALARM 2026-08-27 16.7% Immediate Action Required
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-28 10.2% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-29 12.0% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-30 14.4% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-08-31 12.0% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-01 9.6% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-02 11.3% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-03 11.3% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-04 9.3% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-05 6.9% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-06 7.8% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-07 8.2% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-08 8.0% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-09 6.9% Prepare contingency plans
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-10 5.1% Prepare contingency plans
🔵 MONITOR 2026-09-11 2.7% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-09-12 4.9% Tail-risk detected
🟡 CAUTION 2026-09-13 5.3% Prepare contingency plans
🔵 MONITOR 2026-09-14 4.9% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-09-15 3.1% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-09-16 4.9% Tail-risk detected
🔵 MONITOR 2026-09-20 3.6% Tail-risk detected